stuff I think

Since 1965

Thursday, August 23, 2007

Alls Well If It Ends With Wells

There's only one positive way you could spin this: anybody is better than Brett Tomko (we've all been saying that for weeks now). Even David Wells, at 44 gives you a better chance to win. Not much better, but a tiny bit better.

Nobody will remember this if it fails, but if Wells gets juiced by appearing in New York on national television, Colletti looks like the master showman. In his dreams, the win energizes the team which goes on a roll and makes it to the post-season, where Wells is money in the bank.

Too bad this dream is from 1998. I'd say Wells is more likely to win the Coney Island hot-dog eating contest than any World Series games this year.

But at least Sunday will be entertaining. I had already started to look for things to do that night rather than endure the agony of another Tomko start.

Grady does it again

Here is the Dodgers’ top hitter against lefthanders:
AVG OBP SLG OPS
James Loney .382 .435 .509 .945


Here are the Dodgers’ three worst hitters against lefties:

AVG OBP SLG OPS
Luis González .299 .365 .448 .813
Juan Pierre .261 .299 .290 .589
Ramón Martínez .227 .294 .273 .567

So who’s playing today against a ROOKIE lefthander? All three of these punch and Judy hitters! Gonzalez, with an .813 OPS, has the highest power rating among them.

And who’s NOT playing so these guys can practice not sucking against lefties? Loney, who is the team’s BEST hitter against lefties, with a .382 average. Also Ethier, who hits .325 against southpaws. It’s quibbling to argue with Gonzalez, who hits .299 against lefties. But Pierre and Martinez are head scratchers. Derek Lowe has a better average against lefties than either of these guys.

It seems as if Grady sat down with the lineup and thought to himself “how can I get my two worst hitters into the lineup tonight? I know, I’ll rest my best hitter and the guy who hits lefties really well. That should produce the kind of offensive explosion we had last night.

Tuesday, August 21, 2007

Money Ball?

The Dodgers make a lot of money. Every home game, after they announce the attendance, they proclaim that they are the most successful franchise in the history of baseball (perhaps all sports, but I forget). They routinely draw 3 million fans a year, who pay top dollar for everything from parking ($15!) to hot dogs to $12 beers.

Too bad they spend it so poorly.

Their payroll is $108.4, including $12 million to Odalis Perez and Bill Mueller. That’s a lot of money, but not as much as the Angels ($109.3 million), Mets ($115.2 million), or White Sox ($108.7 million). And it’s not even in the same league with the Yankees ($+ or – 200 million, depending on the day) and Red Sox ($143 million).

I’m not saying that money equals championships. If that were true, the Yankees would win it all every year. But it does equal competitiveness. The Yankees are in it every year, as are the Red Sox, Mets, and Angels. So are the Braves, though they spend somewhat less because they have smart management.

What I am saying is that the Dodgers act like a discount franchise, refusing to spend big money on big time players. What they do spend big bucks on are mediocre players like Darren Dreifort, Odalis Perez, J.D. Drew, and Juan Pierre. This is a case of cheapness exacerbated by mismanagement.

I’d like to see the Dodgers pick up Torii Hunter this offseason, as he is a perennial all star who delivers big hits and has playoff experience. He’s really the only jewel in the 2007 free agent class. But if they don’t get Hunter, I’d hate to see them repeat the Pierre for Soriano mistake of last year by signing an inferior player like Adam Dunn or Brad Wilkerson to a slightly cheaper contract.

It’s the rare player in baseball who merits the kind of millions being paid to the elite. For the most part, the Matt Kemps of the world can deliver the same numbers as the Juan Pierres and Luis Gonzalezes for a whole lot less money. It’s appropriate to spend huge sums on players who provide that added differential that truly makes them superstars.

Monday, August 20, 2007

Day Off

Good win. Must win. Clutch win. Come from behind win. Gutty win by Penny.

Now, can somebody smack Grady Little for letting Russell Martin catch all nine innings after catching 14 innings just 12 hours earlier? I don’t care if Martin volunteered to catch. I don’t care if Mike Lieberthal is hitting .098. You can’t let your young stud catcher play every inning of every game. Grady has no problem playing light-hitting Ramon Martinez whenever Kent or Nomar or Furcal needs a break. He needs to rest Martin just as often.

Catchers wear down over time, over seasons, and over a lifetime, and if Martin continues to catch as often as he does, he’s going to tear both knees.

The manager has relatively few decisions to make, but making the lineup is one of them. I was astounded to see Russell out there again yesterday (and he’s my favorite Dodger). This is a recipe for him struggling at the plate all through September.

Sunday, August 19, 2007

Where was Saito?

I know you don’t want to wear out your closer, but honestly, where was Takashi Saito in last night’s encouraging then deflating loss?

Saito pitched 2/3 of an inning in Friday night’s win, throwing all of seven pitches. Same for Thursday, 2/3 of an inning, seven pitches. That’s fewer pitches than he would throw just warming up to take the mound. Yet he was nowhere to be seen in the Dodgers bullpen last night. He could have thrown two innings if necessary.

Any manager knows that in a tie game at home, you don’t get to use your closer in a save situation. Any win will come in the last at-bat. So you use your bullpen backwards, throwing your strongest pitchers first and then the next-strongest after that, and so on, hoping you don’t have to get to Roberto Hernandez.

Then again, the way the Dodgers were hitting, having Saito throw an inning would merely have prolonged the agony.

Did we learn nothing from Eric Stults’ satisfying performance on Friday? Give the kids a chance. They can’t do any worse than the aging losers in the bullpen, and they might even provide a needed lift. Houlton or Hull instead of Hernandez is a no-brainer. And a whole lot cheaper for the skinflinty McCourts who can’t even pay Abreu the major league minimum while on the DL.

Today’s game will tell us a lot about this team. Do they rally from last night’s loss and continue their winning ways, or do they return to the form of the past two weeks? Brad Penny shows some cojones by going out on three days’ rest. Can the rest of the team follow his lead?