stuff I think

Since 1965

Friday, May 20, 2005

Sounds of Interleague

INTERLEAGUE BASEBALL BRINGS A DIFFERENT STYLE OF PLAY TO AN AUDIENCE UNACCUSTOMED TO SEEING IT
Hoowwee Becky Jane. I sure do love me that newfangled brand o baseball they play over thar in the Merican league. They got this thing called the Dedicate Hitter. Why he don't even go out and play ball half the game. He just sits on a bench and chews his tobacco between innings.

"Why that sounds like you, Cletus."

"I don't reckon he can whittle like me, though."


"Dude, check it out. There's this team playing against the Indians tonight and they're like SO old school. They wear these totally retro high socks--they are so totally metrosexual. And here's the best part. They let the pitcher hit. I mean how unbelievable is that?


INTERLEAGUE MATCHES UP TRADITIONAL RIVALS
"Hey Bob, those rat bastards from Detroit are coming to town to take on our beloved Diamondbacks. Want to go to the game?"

"Of course. I've already got my face painted, and I've been working on my Tigers Suck chant. Listen: Tigers Suck. Tigers Suck."

"That's fantastic. Where did you learn it?"

"From some friends in Detroit."


"Senator Nelson, is there any chance I might use the luxury box at RFK this weekend?"

"This weekend? Heavens no. Our traditional rival, the Toronto Blue Jays are coming to town. I wouldn't miss it for the world. It's the biggest party in all of Washington."


"Hey Gary, do you want to go see the Twins game tonight. The Brewers are in town for another old-fashioned midwest barn burner. I gotta tell you, I can't stand those Milwaukeeites. They walk around like they're the most important city in the midwest that starts with M. They act like they've never even heard of Moline."

"Man, I can't stand those bastards in San Diego. One day of rain and they start complaining about how the sky is falling. Get them up here to Seattle for a week and you'd think they'd melt. I hope the Mariners kick their sunburned asses.

Thursday, May 19, 2005

As Predicted

Did I say the Dodgers were going to beat Dontrelle Willis? I confess I did.

Does it mean they're out of their funk? Hardly. They were simpy due to win a game and he was due to lose one. The law of averages caught up with everybody Tuesday night.

But by Wednesday, the world was set right on its axis. Jeff Weave pitched five good innings and Cesar Ituris got his customary two hits, but it al came crashing down in a big middle inning. It's getting so you don't even have to watch the games to know how they will turn out.

One positive sign is that JD Drew may be coming out of his slump. In the Tuesday night game, he twice struck out looking on 3-2 counts, hoping to get a walk. If I may be so bold, JD, SWING THE BAT! You're hitting in the third spot in the order. You're being paid to drive in runs, not walk. When there are runners on second and third, your job is to drive them home. Hit the ball to the outfield somewhere. Even if you make an out, you will probably drive home a run and your precious on base average will not suffer.

NOTES
Scott Erickson avoids waivers for one more week, taking the spot of Odalis Perez, whose shoulder isn't right.

Tuesday, May 17, 2005

Time to Panic? No. Time to Shuffle? Yes

What happens when a good team playing badly runs into a better team playing worse? In the case of the Dodgers and Marlins, the answer is the better team wins. Florida used good pitching and timely hitting to ease to a 6-2 victory at Dodger Stadium last night.

Despite going up against fifth starter Brian Moehler, Los Angeles was never in the game, falling behind 2-0 before they even came to the plate. When the team in blue did bat, they left eight runners on base, including four in scoring position with two outs.

It’s not as if the team isn’t hitting (except for Jeff Kent, who has had one hit in the past week). They pounded out 10 hits in last night’s game; five of the eight starters have averages over .300. But they’re not hitting when it counts.

The temptation to panic is strong, as the team slides from first to second to third place. But they’re only a game and a half out of first, with a whole lot of season left. San Diego has been reeling off victories like singles at a strip bar; they will cool down soon. Arizona has been taking advantage of the soft underbelly of their schedule, beating up on teams like San Francisco, Pittsburgh, and Colorado.

That said, the Dodgers will probably go out and hang an L on Dontrelle Willis tonight. That’s just how baseball is. Just when you think it can’t get any worse, you come out and beat a tough team and a winning streak is born.

NOTES
Three Dodgers are among the top 10 national leaguers in runs scored: Milton (Game Time) Bradley, with 29; Jeff (Dirk Diggler) Kent, with 28) and Little Cesar Izturis, with 26. All three are on pace to score 100 runs this year.

But the fact that Izturis, the guy you pay to get on, get over, and get in, hasn’t scored more often suggests a lack of production in the second and third spots in the order. Seoul Man Choi has 18 RBIs; Jesus Devotee Drew has 15, the same number as Izturis, and fewer than Bradley, Kent, and Jason Phillips.

It may be time to reshuffle the lineup a bit. I’d move Kent and his .390 OBP to the second spot and Milton Bradley to the third spot. Bradley is quickly becoming the heart of the team, coming up with the big hits in the big spots; third is where you want your best hitter. Choi (or Olmedo Saenz, against lefties) can hit fourth, followed by some combination of Drew, Phillips, Ricky Ledee (Jayson Werth against lefties), and whoever’s playing third.

Jim Tracy is not averse to juggling the lineup. Last year, Adrian Beltre started the season hitting seventh. When it became apparent that he was carrying the team, Tracy slowly moved him up in the order until he was hitting third or fourth pretty much every day.

Monday, May 16, 2005

Taking the Fifth

Now what? Scott Erickson, the Dodgers woeful fifth starter, pitched well enough to merit another audition for the role with his two-run, six-inning outing against the Braves yesterday. Uncharacteristically, it was the bullpen that blew the game. Then again, if the Dodgers had scored a run in the bottom half of the sixth, when they loaded the bases, Erickson might have gotten a win.

By the way, Cesar Izturis, who never walks, needs to swing the bat in that spot. Two on and two out with Oscar Robles hitting behind you, if there’s a pitch near the strike zone, you have to try and put it in play. I know Izturis is a leadoff hitter, and not called upon to drive in runs, and I know patience is the mantra of all big league hitters. But this ies exactly why on base percentage is not the be-all statistic that DePodesta and Beane claim it is.

Under their system, Izturis did a positive thing by taking a walk and loading the bases. But by not getting a hit, he didn’t drive in any runs. Granted, we already have a statistic for driving in runs, but until on-base percentage gives higher credit to those who not only reach base but also move runners along or drive them in, it’s a deceptive statistic.

But I digress. The Dodgers won’t need a fifth starter until May 28 because of off days. Erickson is still the likely candidate, but the Dodgers are talking about Duaner Sanchez as a possible fifth starter. That leaves Erickson in limbo, and the Dodgers with a roster problem. Unless Odalis Perez’s shoulder injury is more serious than we know, Erickson will merely be taking up space in the bullpen for the next two weeks. Meanwhile, because the Dodgers are carrying 12 pitchers, the bench is weak.

Jason Grabowski was one of my favorite players last year; he got clutch hits in big games early in the season before Jayson Werth arrived and stole all his playing time. Since then, he has looked lost at the plate, striking out twice as often as he gets a hit. Jason Repko has been an enthusiastic presence in the lineup, but he has struggled against better pitching. Though he’s a rookie, Oscar Robles is no kid who just needs time to mature. He’s 29 years old and has never shown an ability to hit big league pitching outside of spring training.

Olmedo Saenz is terrific, but he’s in the starting lineup so often it’s hard to think of him as a pinch hitter. The same is true of Ricky Ledee. And Paul Bako, hitting .273 in limited situations, is there for his defensive abilities. In fact, the Dodgers five starting pitchers are hitting better overall than Robles, Grabowski, Repko, and Bako. It’s hardly worth pinch-hitting.

Hopefully, the return of Jayson Werth and Antonio Perez, both scheduled for later this month, will improve the situation. Tonight, the Dodgers go against their old teammates Paul LoDuca, Guillermo Mota, and Juan Encarnacion.

Brad Penny gets the start against his old teammates for the first time since the trade; he goes up against Brian Moehler, a 33-year-old righty playing for his fourth team in four years. He hasn’t given up more than two runs in any of his four starts, but has only one victory to show for it. The Marlins just don’t score when he pitches. That’s a good sign for the Dodgers.

Sunday, May 15, 2005

Better, Worse, or Just Different?

When Paul DePodesta traded away Paul LoDuca, the heart and soul of last year’s team, the GM said he knew that the Dodgers were a playoff team, but he worried that they wouldn’t be able to go very deep into the playoffs.

Two months later, despite DePodesta’s best intentions, the Dodgers lost meekly to the St. Louis Cardinals, winning one of the four games only because Jose Lima threw the game of his life. Meanwhile, Dave Roberts stole the base that saved the Red Sox season and won a World Series ring.

This past off-season, DePodesta made more moves, jettisoning even more cogs from the 2004 team like Shawn Green, Adrian Beltre, and Alex Cora in favor of J.D. Drew, Jeff Kent, and a parade of horribles at third base. Presumably, the point of any off-season move is to make the team better than they were (unless you’re the GM in Kansas City, where the point is to make the team cheaper to run).

So how have those moves paid off so far? We could sit here and compare batting averages, ERAs, slugging percentages, etc. But the simplest measure of this team’s ability is its won-lost record against the best teams in the league. And the news isn’t pretty.

While the Dodgers have beaten up on some bad teams early this year, they’ve struggled against good ones. A lot of people thought the Giants were the team to beat in this division, but without Barry Bonds, they’re just a .500 club. So the Dodgers’ early season wins against San Francisco weren’t much of a test. Nor were wins over Milwaukee or Colorado.

Meanwhile, the team’s record against suddenly surging Arizona is 2-4; they’re 1-3 against St. Louis, 1-2 versus Atlanta, and 1-2 when they play Washington. The only quality team Los Angeles has beaten more often than not is San Diego, whom the Dodgers swept early in the season.

It’s still May, and a lot can happen. And despite all of DePodesta’s tinkering, the team still seems to have some kind of chemistry that is keeping things together (thank you very much, Jim Tracy, one of the better managers in baseball) . They’re only a game out of first place in a division that must be pretty weak if the Diamondbacks and Padres can compete in it. The Dodgers may even win the NL west again. But it doesn’t look like they have what it takes to go any farther than that.